Al
Qaeda's New Front in Lebanon
By: Dr. Walid Phares
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/05/al_qaedas_new_front_in_lebanon.php
Yesterday in northern Lebanon, a group
named Fatah al Islam conducted several attacks against the Lebanese Army,
killing (up to) 25 soldiers and losing (up to) 15 members in addition to
civilian casualties. The fighting is still raging at this hour. This security
development, which could be happening in many other spots in the troubled Middle
East, from Iraq to Gaza, and from Somalia to Afghanistan, has however a special
dimension. It signals in fact the opening of a new front in the War with al
Qaeda’s Terror: Lebanon. Here are the reasons:
Fatah al Islam is based in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al Bared in Northern
Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city with a Sunni majority. The group is an
offshoot of another previously formed group, Fatah al Intifada, both dissidents
from the Palestinian Authority headed by Mahmoud Abbas and both –importantly-
backed and financed by the Syrian intelligence. But Fatah al Islam, formed last
November and headed by Palestinian-born Shaker Absi, is linked directly to al
Qaeda. Absi was a colleague of Jordanian-born Abu Musab al Zarqaqi, killed by an
US air raid last year. Fatah al Islam since its inception has told its
supporters and the population in its areas of training and operations that it
follows the Jihad of al Qaeda.
Fatah al Islam aims at creating an "Emirate" (Islamist principality as in the
Taliban model) in the Sunni areas of Lebanon, and is planning on conducting
operations similar to the ones in the Sunni Triangle of Iraq. But according to
the Lebanese Government and terrorism experts, the group is being secretly
supported by the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad. The question arises in the West
about the logic of having a so-called “secular” Baathist regime supporting an
“Islamic Fundamentalist” organization. First, the Baathist logic is to use
groups not necessarily carrying its Pan-Arab ideology to attack the regime’s
foes and achieve strategic goals: For decades, the Assad (father) regime
supported and used the national-socialist SSNP (Syrian neo-Nazi organization),
the Christian war lord Frangieh, the Maronite militiaman Elie Hobeika, Arab
Socialist factions, the Shiia Jihadist Hezbollah and most importantly a roster
of Jihadi Sunni networks. From Tripoli to Sidon, the Assads' regime manipulated
Harakat al Tawheed al Islamee and the Gamaat Islamiya, both al Qaeda-like
Jihadists. Inside the Palestinian camps of Lebanon, the Syrian Mukahabarat
remote controlled many groupings – Jihadi in their ideology and outlook, but
feeding from the Baathist machine.
The axis:
Hezbollah & al Qaeda
The Fatah al Islam is the latest marriage of convenience between a group of
committed Jihadists, rotating in the al Qaeda’s constellation but gravitating
around Damascus influence. The group accepts Bashar’s support and the Syrian
regime tolerates the organization’s “Sunni” outlook: Both have a common enemy,
even though they may come at each other’s throats in the future. The men of Bin
Laden anywhere in the world, including in Lebanon, have the same standing order:
Bringing down the moderate Arab and Muslim Governments (even in multiethnic
societies) and replace them with Emirates. The men of Bashar Assad and Mahmoud
Ahmedinijad have converging goals, bring down the democratically elected
Government in Lebanon and replace it with a Hizbollah-Syrian dominated regime,
as was the case before 2005. Thus each “axis” has one objective in Lebanon:
crush the Seniora Government. They will take all their time to fight each other
after.
The 2005
Cedars Revolution
Today's clashes between the al Qaeda linked terror network and the Lebanese Army
are a prelude to terror preparations aimed at crumbling the Cedars Revolution,
both Government and civil society this summer. It is a move by the Assad regime
to weaken the cabinet and the army in preparation for a greater offensive later
on by Hizbollah on another front. In short the Damascus-Tehran strategic
planners have unleashed this “local” al Qaeda group in Tripoli to drag the
Lebanese cabinet in side battles, deflecting its attention from the two main
events, highly threatening to Assad: One is the forthcoming UN formed Tribunal
in the assassination case of Rafiq Hariri. The second is the pending deployment
of UN units on the Lebanese-Syrian borders. Both developments can isolate the
Syrian regime. Thus, the Fatah al Islam attacks can be perceived as part of a
preemptive strategy by the Tehran-Damascus axis. But the results, if the
Lebanese Army fails to contain the terrorists, could be very serious to the
Seniora Government and the UN. Worse, if the first piece of a Sunni Triangle is
put in place in Lebanon, this could affect the geopolitics of the War on Terror
globally: The rise of Salafi Jihadism along the coasts of Lebanon, from Tripoli
to Sidon, passing by Beirut. This Emirate-to-be, could become the closer
strategic enclave of Bin Laden to the US Sixth Fleet, Europe’s cities and
Israel.
The United States and the West are now faced with a new development which they cannot allow to grow unchecked: an al Qaeda base on the Eastern Mediterranean. The strategic responses are only two: Reshape the Lebanese Army to face off with the Jihadists and deploy multinational forces on the Syrian Lebanese borders as soon it is possible. The Seniora Government also has work to do: It must without hesitation call on the UN Security Council to deploy forces on the borders, in application of UNSCR 1559 and under Chapter 7. The three main leaders of the parliamentary majority supporting the cabinet have opened the path for such a move: Saad Hariri, the leader of the Sunni community has blasted Fatah al Islam as a threat to Muslims; Walid Jumblat, leader of the Druses and Socialists has already been calling for a UN military intervention; and last but not least, the various Christian parties opposed to Assad have accused the Syrian regime of igniting Terror. All planets are now aligned for a successful move against al Qaeda in Lebanon, before it is too late. But the question is: will the Lebanese politicians seize the moment?
**Dr. Walid Phares is the author of The War of Ideas: Jihadism against
Democracy. He is also the Director of the Future Terrorism Project.
May 21, 2007