It's either outposts in Lebanon or a multinational force
By Amos Harel (Haaretz-3/4/2000)
Around the middle of May, if it becomes clear there won't be a deal with Syria, Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz will have a heart-to-heart talk, at the end of which Barak will order the IDF to unilaterally withdraw from South Lebanon. Within two weeks from that order, say IDF sources, the army will be ready. The withdrawal itself should take only 96 hours. In the first days of June, a month before the date the government set, the IDF will be outside the security zone. The U.S. may want the whole operation postponed until July to make sure that everything is ready for a multinational force, but it's doubtful the South Lebanese Army will be in any shape to enable Israel to remain inside Lebanon by June.

The plan proposed by the IDF to Barak included a recommendation to leave troops inside three outposts about a kilometer inside Lebanon - Karkoum, north of Zarit; Shaked, north of Avivim; and Galgalit, west of Metullah. Barak turned down the recommendation.

When the order comes, Barak said, the IDF will withdraw to the international border. it will only hold onto outposts that are a few dozen meters inside the border - Hamama, Tzivoni, Olesh, and Barkan - or those that are actually divided by the international border - Tziporen, Tzurit and Levana. If there are talks with Lebanon at a later date, said Barak, those outposts can be discussed as well, as can the outposts at Mount Dov, some of which are technically inside Lebanon.

Is that all there is to it? Doubtful. Europeans and United Nations officials who have been in the region recently are making it clear to Jerusalem that international support for a one-sided withdrawal is dependent on the withdrawal being absolute. All it will take is one outpost still inside Lebanon to ruin the plan.

The messages are raising questions in the security cabinet. Justice Minister Yossi Beilin, who campaigned the longest for a unilateral withdrawal, says openly that the IDF's current plan will not be internationally accepted as constituting a full withdrawal.

According to Beilin, Israel need not plan its steps according to the Hezbollah's demands, because the Hezbollah will never be lacking for an excuse to attack Israel. But there is a need for international recognition of the withdrawal. The world will accept an Israeli redeployment to what Jerusalem regards to the best of its ability as the international line (some 60 percent of the northern border is not delineated in any agreement between Israel and Lebanon). But moving the border for security reasons will undermine the international support so crucial for the deployment of an international force.

"The world will count the 70 meters between the border and Tzivoni, which the IDF doesn't want to give up," says Beilin, who heard precisely that from the British deputy foreign minister on a recent swing through the area. Peter Haine told Beilin that London would not be able to contribute troops to a multinational force if Israeli forces remain inside Lebanon.

Barak plans to withdraw according to the 1978 UN Security Resolution 425, which explicitly states that the UN force, UNIFIL, must confirm the withdrawal as complete. UNIFIL's approval of the withdrawal won't be forthcoming if the withdrawal doesn't include all the outposts.

UNIFIL plays a minor role nowadays in South Lebanon. Indeed, not only does it not prevent Hezbollah activity, but the guerrillas use UNIFIL-controlled areas as shelters. The force has budget problems and some of the countries supplying troops are having second thoughts.

But an IDF withdrawal could reinvigorate UNIFIL. Barak hopes to see it turned into a full-fledged multinational force, possibly including French, British and Canadian soldiers. The UN says it should be possible to have troops in southern Lebanon within a week of the withdrawal.

Maybe that's the key to the whole thing: If Israel's withdrawal meets UNIFIL's conditions, and if the Lebanese army does move into those areas that the IDF leaves, the Hezbollah will lose its excuse for action. The organization's leaders have already said that they won't conduct military activity from any place where the Lebanese government is present.

The IDF, meanwhile, is following Barak's orders. Military sources say that the outposts inside Lebanon are necessary for the protection of the northern settlements, and that lining up on the border would be like a goalkeeper in a football game lining up on the goal line, instead of a few meters ahead of it.

But at the end of the day, says Beilin, when all the arguments are over, the army will be on the international border, even if it takes international pressure a month after the withdrawal. "We've grown up," he says. "It's impossible to keep on thinking in terms of 'Let me have a few more meters, there's a great outpost there.' Without a withdrawal to the last centimeter, the entire move won't succeed.
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