The remarkable showing by the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Baabda-Aley by-election on Sunday has sent shock waves through political circles in Lebanon. The FPM candidate, Hikmat Dib was ever so slightly edged out by his very heavily backed rival, Henri Helou, but it was the closeness of the results that has stunned many observers, who were all predicting an easy victory for Helou, obviously under estimating the popularity of the FPM. In the end though, Henri Helou scrapped in by a mere 3000 votes.
Henri Helou, who had the backing of all Pro-Syrian political parties as well as individuals and groups of the so-called opposition, was expected to win comfortably. A massive political machine was mobilised in support of Helou with a coalition that included among others, Walid Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Amal, Hezbollah, The Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (SSNP) and both factions of the Kataeb Party.
In what has been seen as a huge wake up call to all political groups, the FPM has shown that it is not be taken lightly and will be a major political force in the 2005 parliamentary elections. The fact that Henri Helou who was backed by all the major political forces in the country could only garner 3000 more votes than the FPM’s Hikmat Dib was confirmation of the FPM’s popularity amongst the Lebanese. While the FPM did not officially win the election, it is being touted as the winner because it took on all the major political groups in Lebanon and received practically the same amount of votes.
The results of the Baabda-Aley ballot will have far reaching ramifications in all future elections in Lebanon. Political groups and individuals will now have to re-examine their policies and alliances. Another important factor to come out of the poll is that the Pro-Syrian groups cannot rely on Syria any longer to guarantee them victory. It seems that Syria was either unwilling or unable to interfere in the electoral process; in both cases it demonstrates Syria’s diminishing powers in Lebanon. The FPM through its exceptional performance has exposed the unpopularity of the pro-Syrian groups in Lebanon and the determination of the people to have their voices heard.
The Baabda-Aley by-election ushered in a new era in Lebanese politics, it signified the birth of a new and refreshing force that truly represents the will and aspirations of the Lebanese people, it also signalled the decline of the once mighty traditional political powerbrokers. One such case is the PSP leader Walid Jumblatt, who is seen as one of the biggest losers of the election. Before the election, Jumblatt was regarded as unassailable in an electorate he has controlled since the end of the so-called "civil war" but Sunday’s results have confirmed that he is no longer as secure as he once thought.
While the resounding performance of the FPM, will hold it in good stead for the 2005 parliamentary elections the same can’t be said for Walid Jumblatt and others who backed Henri Helou, the outcome could well mean the beginning of the end for those like Jumblatt who until Sunday never faced a serious challenge to their positions.
The electoral experiment that the FPM undertook in Baabda-Aley produced very successful outcomes and if the trend continues, it is not out of the question for the FPM to sweep to victory in the majority of the constituencies in the elections in 2005. The future is certainly very bright for the FPM and for Lebanon. No longer can the political parties take the Lebanese people for granted. In light of the FPM’s strong presence on the ground, the other political groups must now really work hard to gain the people’s favour. There is no longer a monopoly on the Lebanese political landscape by a few political parties; the FPM has shown that they are a very viable and competent alternative.