Desperate times call for desperate measures
Charbel Khouri
UALM
3/8/03

The attack on Metn MP Nassib Lahoud, last Saturday in the tranquil town of Bteghrin was the latest in a long line of incidents that have involved political personalities. In the last few months there has been a missile attack on Rafik Harriri’s television station; shots fired on the motorcade of warlord and staunch Syrian ally Nabih Berri and a cowardly attack on the wife of former Chief of Army intelligence and former Ambassodor Johnny Abdo. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to understand the timing and relevance of these events. The fact that there is unprecedented pressure on Syria with regards to its occupation of Lebanon and the upcoming Lebanese presidential ‘elections’ has left the Syrians clutching at straws.

It is not by accident that the flare up in political violence has coincided with the ever-growing calls for Syria to withdraw its army from Lebanon. Damascus has long maintained that its presence in Lebanon is necessary to help the Lebanese government maintain law and order, a claim that is supported by the Syrian appointed Lebanese government but rejected by just about everyone else. Former Prime Minister General Michel Aoun best explains Syria’s role, he accurately compares Syria to the pyromaniac fire fighter who starts the fire and then is called to put it out and it seems that this time is no exception.

Because the Syrian’s have a well established secret service (moukabarat) network in Lebanon with tentacles that reach into all facets of Lebanese society it would be virtually impossible to carry out the attacks that have occurred in the past couple of months without at least indirect Syrian knowledge or even assistance. Also, it is the Syrian’s that do not allow the Lebanese army and the Internal Security Forces (ISF) to assert their authority and uphold law and order, therefore allowing unruly elements to cause havoc and terrorise the people. Syria knows that a strong Lebanese government is a threat to its hegemony and thus it will do anything possible to undermine the power of the state.

In an attempt to hide their involvement in the attacks, the Syrian’s very cunningly employ numerous tactics. In the recent Bteghrin incident for example, they were quick to make it clear through the media that the incident happened due to the ongoing feud between Gabriel al Murr and his older brother the pro-Syrian Michel al Murr, also some high ranking officers in the ISF were arrested for their so called incompetence, it worth mentioning though that those police officers who were arrested for not stopping the ambush on Nassib Lahoud were given orders not to get involved. Even Syrian President Bashar al Assad felt the need to deflect any hint of involvement. While he was meeting with former Prime Minister Omar Karami, he called the incident "absolutely unacceptable" and urged the Lebanese authorities to show no mercy for the culprits.

Bashar al Assad did well to cover his tracks by making sure that he had all bases covered. It is the same old story, they manipulated the media to tell the people what they want them to hear, brought in a scapegoat to cop the flak and take the blame, then through its leaders calls on ‘Lebanon’ to bring the culprits to justice. If indeed Bashar al Assad does allow the Lebanese authorities to act independently, and deal with the real perpetrators of the crimes than some of his staunchest allies might find themselves in a lot of hot water.

There are numerous explanations for the recent spate of events. The attacks that have occurred lately could be messages from Syria to the person involved. For instance the attack on Nassib Lahoud, could have been a message to him to forget about the his presidential aspirations for now or the attack on Johnny Abdo’s wife could have been a message to him not to reveal any information that would implicate the Syrians in any crimes. The most logical explanation is that the Syrian government through its secret service is trying to destabilise Lebanon by spreading fear and terror in an attempt to tighten its grip. Its aim is for it to be called upon once again by the international community to help restore peace in Lebanon, therefore silencing any calls for its withdrawal.

But unfortunately for the Syrian government now is a desperate time for Syria and desperate times call for desperate measures, but this time it will not be enough. Those outdated policies that worked in 1976 will not work any longer. The decision has been taken that Syria must leave Lebanon, it can choose to either go quietly or it can try to cause havoc but in the end Syria’s persistence and determination to stay in Lebanon at all costs will eventually prove to be instrumental in its downfall.